Tag Archives: pot advertising

New Poll Finds Legal Pot Not Inevitable in California

New Poll Reveals Soft Support for Proposition 64

no-on-prop-63
Official Logo of the No on 63 campaign.

The latest poll of Proposition 64 shows soft support of the measure and highlights how quickly support changes depending how the message is given.  Of the five states with marijuana legalization on the ballot in 2016, California is the only state in which support for legalization leads in the polls.  Legalization ballots lose badly in Massachusetts and in Arizona, according to  recent polls.  It is a statistical tie in Nevada.

Smith-Johnson Research conducted a poll of 500 likely California voters by cell and land lines,  August 17-19, 2016.   The margin for error is +/-4.4%.  Support for legalization drops once voters hear one fact — Proposition 64 will allow marijuana smoking ads in prime time, and on programs with millions of children and teenage viewers.

Voters heard the description of Proposition 64 two different ways.

First, the ballot said that the Adult Use of Marijuana Act “could result in tens of millions of dollars in savings and increase tax revenue from hundreds of millions of dollars to over one billion annually. It gives local government the right to ban local sales, and establishes a state system of regulation and licensure.”  With these positive messages, 56% of voters support the ballot.   (About 80% of communities in California have banned marijuana.)

Second Ballot Mentions Advertising

In the second ballot, they were told of a ruling by the Sacramento Superior Court about advertising. Opponents to Proposition 64 may state there’s the possibility of television ads promoting marijuana smoking and edibles on prime time television.  The change from the first to the second poll was dramatic, shifting from majority in favor to majority opposing.  The second ballot yielded 43% support compared to 52% oppose.

In each case, the interviewees asked, “If the election was held today, would you definitely vote for Proposition 64, probably vote for Proposition 64, probably vote against Proposition 64 or definitely vote against Proposition 64.

These results of this new poll shows the fluidity of vote and the softening of the support.  Support soften as voters begin to hear more about the actual details of the measure. As in other surveys on this issue women continue to be skeptical about Prop 64.  In this latest statewide test only 49% of likely women voters are “probably” or “definitely” supporting the measure.   Here’s a description of the new poll with complete description of the questions.

“Proposition 64 has had two weeks of press coverage that is starting to expose some serious flaws,” said Tim Rosales. Rosales is a strategist working on No on 64.  He mentioned possible “television ads promoting smoking marijuana that will air to millions of kids.”  Support is soft and a win of No on 64 is “definitely is in striking distance.”